[Analysis on the household secondary attack rates of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and the associated factors].

Objective: To evaluate the household secondary attack rates of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and the associated factors. Methods: A COVID-19 outbreak caused by the Delta variant occurred in Nanjing in July 2021. A total of 235 cases with current addresses in Nanjing were reported from 171 households. The subjects in this study were selected from household close contact(s) of infected cases. The information on household index cases and their contacts were collected, and the household secondary attack rate (HSAR) and the risk factors were analyzed by the multi-factor logistic regression model. Results: A total of 234 cases of household close contacts and 64 household secondary cases were reported from 103 households, and the HSAR was 27.4% (64/234, 95%CI:22.0% to 33.4%). The proportions of household size for 2 to 3, 4 to 5, and 6 to 9 were 64.1% (66), 26.2% (27) and 9.7% (10), respectively. A total of 35 cases of household cluster outbreaks were reported (35/103, 34.0%). The number of the first case in the household (FCH) was 103 and males accounted for 27.2% (28 cases), with the median age (Q1, Q3) of 49 (9, 56). The number of household close contacts was 234 and males accounted for 59.0% (138 cases), with the median age (Q1, Q3) of 42 (20, 55) and the median exposure period (Q1, Q3) of 3 (1, 3) days. The multi-factor logistic regression model showed that the higher HSAR was observed in the FCH with the features of airport staff (OR=2.913, 95%CI:1.469-5.774), detection from home quarantine screening (OR=6.795, 95%CI:1.761-26.219) and detection from mass screening (OR=4.239, 95%CI:1.098-16.368). Meanwhile, higher HSAR was observed in cases with longer household exposure (OR=1.221, 95%CI:1.040-1.432), non-vaccination (OR=2.963, 95%CI:1.288-6.813) and incomplete vaccinations (OR=2.842, 95%CI:0.925-8.731). Conclusion: The generation interval of the Delta variant is shortened, and the ability of transmission within the household is enhanced. In the outbreak in Nanjing, the associated factors of HSAR are occupation, detection route, vaccination and exposure period.

Local Housing Market Sentiments and Returns: Evidence from China

This paper examines the impacts of local housing sentiments on the housing price dynamics of China. With a massive second-hand transaction dataset, we construct monthly local housing sentiment indices for 18 major cities in China from January 2016 to October 2020. We create three sentiment proxies representing the local housing market liquidity and speculative behaviors from the transaction dataset and then use partial least squares (PLS) to extract a recursive look-ahead-bias-free local housing sentiment index for each city considered. The local housing sentiments are shown to have robust predictive powers for future housing returns with a salient short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction pattern. Further analysis shows that local housing sentiment impacts are asymmetric, and housing returns in cities with relatively inelastic housing supply are more sensitive to local housing sentiments. We also document a significant feedback effect between housing returns and market sentiments, indicating the existence of a pricing-sentiment spiral which could potentially enhance the ongoing market fever of Chinese housing markets. The main estimation results are robust to alternative sentiment extraction methods and alternative sentiment proxies, and consistent for the sample period before COVID-19.

Risk Spillover of Global Treasury Bond Markets in the Time of COVID-19 Pandemic

We employ the state-dependent local projection method to identify the dynamic risk aggravation effects on Treasury market volatilities and risk spillovers under both local and global COVID-19 pandemic shocks. We find that emerging markets suffer more instability as risk receivers during the pandemic. Local pandemic shock sharpens the risk spillover mainly in the short run, especially when global risk is high, while global pandemic shock aggravates spillover in the medium run led by economic depression expectations. The results are not only helpful to encourage governments to deepen cooperation in combating the pandemic but also alert authorities to pay more attention to imported financial risk.

[Evaluation of safety of two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in a large-scale emergency use].

Objective: To evaluate the safety of two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in a large-scale emergency use. Methods: Based on the "Vaccination Information Collection System", the incidence data of adverse reactions in the population vaccinated with the inactivated COVID-19 vaccines developed by Beijing Institute of Biological Products Co., Ltd and Wuhan Institute of Biological Products Co., Ltd, respectively, in emergency use were collected, and the relevant information were analyzed with descriptive epidemiological and statistical methods. Results: By December 1, 2020, the vaccination information of 519 543 individuals had been collected. The overall incidence rate of adverse reactions was 1.06%, the incidence rate of systemic adverse reactions was 0.69% and the incidence rate of local adverse reactions was 0.37%. The main systemic adverse reactions included fatigue, headache, fever, cough and loss of appetite with the incidence rates of 0.21%, 0.14%, 0.06%, 0.05% and 0.05%, respectively; the main local adverse reactions were injection site pain and injection site swelling with the incidence rates of 0.24% and 0.05%, respectively. Conclusion: The two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines by Beijing Institute of Biological Products Co., Ltd and Wuhan Institute of Biological Products Co., Ltd showed that in the large-scale emergency use, the incidence rate of general reactions was low and no serious adverse reactions were observed after the vaccinations, demonstrating that the vaccines have good safety.